forecasting & projections | covec

By: Covec  06-Dec-2011
Keywords: Economic Development, Forecasts, Greenhouse Gas

Covec is highly skilled at applying all modern forecasting techniques to assist clients with developing plans and strategies, including developing econometric and time-series models, economic modelling and stakeholder consultation. Our forecasts also incorporate qualitative information from industry stakeholders and other credible sources, to capture effects that are not easily incorporated into quantitative models.

Business Land Projections

Generated business land projections to 2050 using a combination of empirical methods.

Demand Forecasts for State Schooling

Used a range of quantitative and qualitative techniques to estimate short- and long-term demand for state schooling in Auckland’s CBD.

Energy demand forecasts

Ministry of Economic Development (NZ)

Analysed historical energy demand by a number of industrial sectors and provided projections of future energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions.

Forecasting demand for transmission grid services

Analysis of trends and step changes in demand for electricity at grid exit points, several projects.

International passenger forecasts for New Zealand Customs

New Zealand Customs commissioned Covec to prepare monthly international passenger movements through New Zealand’s three major airports.  The forecasts are used by New Zealand Customs to anticipate future staffing and infrastructure requirements.

Passenger forecasts for Cairns & Mackay Airport

North Queensland Airports Limited

Covec was commissioned by a consortium of investment banks to generate annual passenger forecasts to 2030 to support the purchase of Cairns & Mackay Airports in Northern Queensland.  The forecasts were the main drivers of the valuation models used by the banks.  We have updated the forecasts several times since then to support various processes, including the partial sale of Cairns Airport to Auckland Airport in 2010 and a substantial debt refinancing process in 2011.

Tourism forecasting programme 2002-2010

Covec has managed the Ministry of Tourism’s forecasting programme since 2002.  The outputs from this programme include detailed forecasts of international visits, nights and expenditure segmented by purpose of travel and origin, as well as forecasts of domestic visits, nights and expenditure segmented by purpose of travel and type of trip (day vs. overnight).  Covec has played a key role in planning and managing the ongoing development of this programme.

Valuation of broadcasting spectrum rights

Ministry of Economic Development (NZ)

Development of a simple, robust and transparent method for valuing the renewal of broadcast spectrum rights.

Water demand forecasting

The aim of this project was to generate residential water demand forecasts for the Auckland region to 2050. This was done using sophisticated time-series econometrics, which projected consumption on the basis of past trends, and a range of other factors

Keywords: Debt Refinancing, Econometrics, Economic Development, Energy Demand, Forecasts, Greenhouse Gas, Investment Banks, Refinancing Process, Tourism Forecasting, Valuation Models,

Other products and services from Covec

06-Dec-2011

economic modelling & analysis | covec

These include the regional tourism forecasts which are produced as part of the Ministry of Tourism’s forecasting programme, tourism analysis and forecasts developed for use in strategic planning processes and detailed analysis of the tourism impacts generated by major events.


06-Dec-2011

litigation support | covec

In such cases, Covec can supply expert testimony, locate other experts, work with solicitors and barristers to formulate the case, and attend hearings for the purpose of cross-examination. Analysis and expert testimony on the economic implications of alternative treatments of taxation in the assessment of gas pipeline regulation, before the High Court in Wellington.


06-Dec-2011

policy & cost-benefit analysis | covec

This project estimated the economic impact of the port by analysing the effect of its operations on the regional economy. Ports of Auckland is the largest port in New Zealand, carrying 37% of annual trade.


06-Dec-2011

competition & regulatory advice | covec

Detailed empirical modelling of the cost and demand for different forms of waste collection in cities of varying sizes, including modelling economies of route density. Review of the telecommunications and broadcasting industries in Macao, and development of principles to guide drafting of competition law for these sectors.


06-Dec-2011

commercial transaction support | covec

We have updated the forecasts several times since then to support various processes, including the partial sale of Cairns Airport to Auckland Airport in 2010 and a substantial debt refinancing process in 2011. Covec was commissioned by a consortium of investment banks to generate annual passenger forecasts to 2030 to support the purchase of Cairns & Mackay Airports in Northern Queensland.