commercial transaction support | covec

By: Covec  06-Dec-2011
Keywords: Forecasts, Investment Banks, Valuation Models

Covec provides two distinct sets of services in the context of commercial transactions. Drawing on our understanding of markets and business, we build demand forecasts and financial models to analyse the commercial value of proposals. Once a transaction has been formulated, we can then analyse its implications for competition and liaise with competition authorities during their deliberations.

Competitive effects of a vertical merger

Australian Competition and Consumer Commission

Expert testimony on the competitive impact of a proposed vertical merger in the Victorian electricity industry, before the Federal Court in Melbourne.

Forecasts of fuel consumption in New Zealand

Covec produced forecasts of fuel consumption in New Zealand as part of the Shell New Zealand sale process.  Annual forecasts to 2030 were generated for the retail, commercial, aviation and marine sectors, and for various sub-markets within each of these sectors.

Merger analysis in the carpet industry

Minter Ellison Rudd Watts

Review of the competition implications of a proposed merger in the carpet manufacturing sector.

Merger analysis in the oil industry

Minter Ellison Rudd Watts

Analysis of whether the sale of Mobil's general aviation refueling business to a competitor would substantially lessen competition.

Merger analysis in the waste industry

Detailed empirical modelling of the cost and demand for different forms of waste collection in cities of varying sizes, including modelling economies of route density.

Passenger forecasts for Cairns & Mackay Airport

North Queensland Airports Limited

Covec was commissioned by a consortium of investment banks to generate annual passenger forecasts to 2030 to support the purchase of Cairns & Mackay Airports in Northern Queensland.  The forecasts were the main drivers of the valuation models used by the banks.  We have updated the forecasts several times since then to support various processes, including the partial sale of Cairns Airport to Auckland Airport in 2010 and a substantial debt refinancing process in 2011.

Keywords: Debt Refinancing, Federal Court, Forecasts, Investment Banks, Merger Analysis, Refinancing Process, Valuation Models,

Other products and services from Covec


economic modelling & analysis | covec

These include the regional tourism forecasts which are produced as part of the Ministry of Tourism’s forecasting programme, tourism analysis and forecasts developed for use in strategic planning processes and detailed analysis of the tourism impacts generated by major events.


forecasting & projections | covec

Covec is highly skilled at applying all modern forecasting techniques to assist clients with developing plans and strategies, including developing econometric and time-series models, economic modelling and stakeholder consultation. Our forecasts also incorporate qualitative information from industry stakeholders and other credible sources, to capture effects that are not easily incorporated into quantitative models.


litigation support | covec

In such cases, Covec can supply expert testimony, locate other experts, work with solicitors and barristers to formulate the case, and attend hearings for the purpose of cross-examination. Analysis and expert testimony on the economic implications of alternative treatments of taxation in the assessment of gas pipeline regulation, before the High Court in Wellington.


policy & cost-benefit analysis | covec

This project estimated the economic impact of the port by analysing the effect of its operations on the regional economy. Ports of Auckland is the largest port in New Zealand, carrying 37% of annual trade.


competition & regulatory advice | covec

Detailed empirical modelling of the cost and demand for different forms of waste collection in cities of varying sizes, including modelling economies of route density. Review of the telecommunications and broadcasting industries in Macao, and development of principles to guide drafting of competition law for these sectors.